Master the Art of Weather Prediction
Weather Safety for Scout Bushcraft & Camping
Weather Prediction for Scouts: Reading the Weather in the Outdoors
Understanding the weather is an important skill for Scouts when hiking, camping and practising bushcraft. Learn how to read clouds, wind, temperature and other natural signs to recognise changing weather conditions and make simple predictions. This practical skill complements the Scouts Meteorologist Activity Badge and helps Scouts become more confident and aware when outdoors.
Sky Observations
Learn to interpret cloud formations and colors to predict upcoming weather changes.
Wind Patterns
Understand how wind direction and speed can signal shifts in weather conditions.
The Importance of Weather Awareness
Weather awareness is an important bushcraft and hiking skill. Before heading outdoors, Scouts should always check a reliable weather forecast, but once outside they can also learn to observe the sky, wind, clouds, temperature and natural environment for signs of changing weather.
These observations won't replace a proper forecast, but they can help Scouts understand what is happening around them and recognise when conditions may be changing.
This links particularly well with the Scouts Meteorologist Activity Badge and gives Scouts a practical way to put meteorology into practice while hiking, camping or practising bushcraft. Scouts also recommends checking the weather forecast when planning hiking activities.
What Can You Learn From the Weather?
When you're outdoors, look at six basic things:
| Observation | What to look for |
|---|---|
| ☁️ Clouds | Type, height, movement and whether they are building |
| 💨 Wind | Direction, strength and changes in speed |
| 🌡️ Temperature | Rising, falling or sudden changes |
| 🌧️ Rain | Approaching showers, drizzle or prolonged rain |
| 🌫️ Visibility | Mist, fog and changes in visibility |
| 🌬️ Air pressure | Rising or falling pressure if you have a barometer |
The Met Office - Before heading outdoors, always check a reliable weather forecast and any current weather warnings. Natural signs such as clouds, wind and temperature can help you understand changing conditions while you are outside, but they should never replace an official forecast.
Reading the Clouds
Cloud watching is a simple and enjoyable way for Scouts to learn about the weather while hiking, camping or taking part in bushcraft activities. By looking at the type, height, movement and development of clouds, Scouts can begin to recognise signs of changing weather.
Cumulus Clouds
Cumulus clouds are the familiar white, fluffy clouds often seen on fair-weather days. Small, scattered cumulus clouds usually indicate reasonable conditions.
Keep watching them, though. If they begin to grow rapidly upwards and become taller and darker, they can develop into heavy showers or thunderstorms, particularly during warm, humid weather. Picture 1 - Picture 2
Stratus Clouds
Stratus clouds form a low, grey layer that can cover much of the sky. They are often associated with dull, overcast conditions and may bring mist, drizzle or light rain.
For Scouts, low cloud can also reduce visibility, so take extra care when hiking or navigating.
Cumulonimbus Clouds
Cumulonimbus clouds are large, towering clouds that can have a dark base and a distinctive anvil-shaped top. They are associated with heavy rain, lightning, hail and strong winds.
For Scouts, seeing a cumulonimbus cloud is a safety warning. If a thunderstorm is approaching, tell your leader, follow the group's safety procedures and move to a safe location.
Cirrus Clouds
Cirrus clouds are high, thin and wispy clouds made mostly of ice crystals. They often appear as delicate streaks across a blue sky.
Increasing amounts of cirrus can sometimes be an early sign that a weather system is approaching. Look at how the clouds change over time rather than relying on one observation.
Scouts in the Wind
Wind is simply moving air, but for Scouts it can provide useful clues about changing weather. When hiking or practising bushcraft, observe the direction, strength and changes in the wind. Watch trees, grass, flags or smoke to see which way it is moving, and notice if the wind suddenly becomes stronger or changes direction.
A steady wind can give clues about the weather system around you, while a sudden change may indicate an approaching shower, front or other change in conditions. Remember that wind conditions can change quickly, especially in exposed areas.
Reading the Wind
Wind is air moving from areas of higher pressure towards areas of lower pressure.
Scouts can estimate wind direction without equipment by looking at:
- leaves and branches
- long grass
- smoke from a safe fire
- flags
- ripples on water
- moving clouds
A simple exercise is to stand somewhere open and identify the direction the wind is coming from. Visual/Storyboard LinK
Watch How the Clouds Move
Don't just identify the cloud — watch it.
Ask Scouts:
- Which direction are the clouds moving?
- Are different layers moving in different directions?
- Are clouds becoming thicker?
- Are they getting lower?
- Are cumulus clouds growing taller?
- Is clear sky disappearing?
- Is rain approaching from the same direction as the wind?
Cloud movement can give Scouts a much better understanding of what the atmosphere is doing.
Wind direction can also provide clues
In the UK, wind direction can influence the type of weather experienced. For example, northerly winds commonly bring colder, showery air, while south-westerly winds are often associated with milder, wetter conditions. However, these are general patterns rather than guaranteed predictions.
Natural Signs of Changing Weather
This is where the page can become particularly useful for bushcraft and hiking.
1. Increasing cloud
A blue sky gradually becoming covered by increasingly thick cloud may indicate a change in weather.
2. Clouds building upwards
If fluffy cumulus clouds become taller and darker, showers or thunderstorms may develop.
3. Wind suddenly changes
A noticeable change in wind direction or a sudden increase in wind strength can indicate that a front, shower or other weather system is approaching.
4. Falling visibility
Mist or fog developing can make navigation more difficult, particularly on hills and open ground.
5. Temperature suddenly changes
A noticeable drop in temperature can accompany a passing front, shower or change in air mass.
6. Atmospheric pressure changes
A falling barometer can be associated with unsettled weather, while rising pressure often accompanies improving conditions — although pressure needs to be considered alongside wind, cloud and other observations.
Nature Can Give Clues But Be Careful
There are many traditional weather sayings:
"Red sky at night, shepherd's delight."
"Red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning."
There is some meteorological reasoning behind observations of the sky, but traditional weather signs should not be treated as guaranteed forecasts.
The same applies to claims such as:
- birds flying low before rain
- cows lying down before storms
- insects becoming more active before rain
- pine cones closing before wet weather
- flowers becoming strongly scented
- animals behaving differently before storms
Some natural observations may have sensible explanations, while others are folklore or unreliable.
Interestingly, the Met Office notes that increased moisture can make smells from plants and organic material more noticeable before wet weather, and mentions traditional observations of animal behaviour before thunderstorms.
A good Scout should learn to ask:
"Is this a reliable weather indicator, or just an old weather saying?"
Scout Safety: Be Prepared for Any Weather
Scouts should always be prepared for changing weather when hiking, camping or taking part in bushcraft activities. Check the latest weather forecast and any weather warnings before setting out, and make sure the group has suitable clothing, equipment and a plan for changing conditions.
However, being prepared also means knowing when not to go. If the forecast indicates severe weather, dangerous conditions or a significant risk to the group, leaders should be prepared to postpone, change or cancel the activity. Safety should always come before completing the planned activity.
Be Prepared — but be prepared to call it off when conditions are unsafe.
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